Legislature(2015 - 2016)SENATE FINANCE 532

02/04/2016 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE

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Audio Topic
09:05:25 AM Start
09:06:11 AM Presentation: State Debt and Credit Rating
10:36:41 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Presentation: State Debt and Credit Rating TELECONFERENCED
Deven Mitchell, Executive Director, Alaska
Municipal Bond Bank
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                 SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                       
                     February 4, 2016                                                                                           
                         9:05 a.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:05:25 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  called the Senate Finance  Committee meeting                                                                    
to order at 9:05 a.m.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Anna MacKinnon, Co-Chair                                                                                                
Senator Pete Kelly, Co-Chair                                                                                                    
Senator Peter Micciche, Vice-Chair                                                                                              
Senator Click Bishop                                                                                                            
Senator Mike Dunleavy                                                                                                           
Senator Lyman Hoffman                                                                                                           
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Deven  Mitchell, Executive  Director, Alaska  Municipal Bond                                                                    
Bank Authority, Department of Revenue.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
^PRESENTATION: STATE DEBT and CREDIT RATING                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:06:11 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
DEVEN  MITCHELL, EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR, ALASKA  MUNICIPAL BOND                                                                    
BANK  AUTHORITY,   DEPARTMENT  OF  REVENUE,   discussed  the                                                                    
presentation,  "Targeted  State   Debt  Summary  and  Credit                                                                    
Review" (copy on  file). He shared that there  were a couple                                                                    
of mistakes within the presentation.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  encouraged members  to hold  their questions                                                                    
until an appropriate time.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell  looked at  slide  1,  "State Debt  Obligation                                                                    
Process":                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     All Forms of State Debt are Authorized First by the                                                                        
     Legislature                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
          For    limited    obligations    following    this                                                                    
          authorization the authorized issuer implements                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy wondered if the debt obligation was open-                                                                      
ended, or  were there separate obligations.  He specifically                                                                    
queried the number of acts  passed by the legislature, which                                                                    
opened the  ability to bond.  Mr. Mitchell replied  that the                                                                    
authorization was in effect until the implementation.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy surmised that that there could be                                                                              
concurrent obligations. Mr. Mitchell agreed.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy gathered that corporations could also be                                                                       
granted authorization. Mr. Mitchell agreed.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell continued to discuss slide 1:                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     General obligation bonds must also be approved by a                                                                        
     majority of voters                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     All State Debt must be structured and authorized by                                                                        
     the State Bond Committee                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
          Includes  general  obligation  bonds,  subject  to                                                                    
          appropriation issues, and revenue bonds                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     The State Bond Committee determines method and timing                                                                      
     of debt issues to meet the authorized projects cash                                                                        
     flow needs                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
          Committee  must  hold  a publicly  noticed  public                                                                    
          meeting and  approve a Resolution  authorizing the                                                                    
          sale of the obligations                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
          Disclosure  document, rating  agency presentation,                                                                    
          investor presentation,  and other  legal documents                                                                    
          must be prepared                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
          Bonds are  sold and  a closing is  conducted where                                                                    
          the  final  documents  are signed  and  funds  are                                                                    
          transferred.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     The School Debt Reimbursement Program is administered                                                                      
     by the Department of Education and Early Development                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
          Must be general obligation of local government,                                                                       
          at least 10 year and level debt service                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:14:49 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Bishop noted  the GO bond sale in early  2000s, at a                                                                    
time of  a small capital  budget. He remarked that  the bond                                                                    
sales  were executed  in 2004,  but was  not utilized  until                                                                    
2008. He stressed  that contracts should be  project and bid                                                                    
ready, in order  to immediately take advantage  of the money                                                                    
from the bond sales. He noted  that assets must be kept at a                                                                    
high level, to maintain a high value.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  queried the members of  the Alaska State                                                                    
Bond Committee. Mr. Mitchell replied  that the committee was                                                                    
established  by  statute.  The   members  consisted  of  the                                                                    
commissioners   of   the   Department  of   Revenue   (DOR),                                                                    
Department of  Commerce, Community and  Economic Development                                                                    
(DCCED), and  Department of  Administration (DOA);  or their                                                                    
designees. He stated that there  were three designees, which                                                                    
were deputy commissioners of the departments.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  surmised  that the  administration  was                                                                    
driving the  committee with how  to move forward  with debt.                                                                    
She  noted  that  the  school   debt  program  was  recently                                                                    
suspended,  with  the hope  to  incur  additional debt.  She                                                                    
looked at  page 5  of the  Debt Report  (copy on  file). She                                                                    
noted  that the  reimbursable figure  to the  municipalities                                                                    
was $895  million, but queried the  outstanding school debt.                                                                    
Mr. Mitchell replied that the  school debt was approximately                                                                    
$60 million  to $65 million,  which was authorized  prior to                                                                    
the January 1, 2015 deadline.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon appreciated  the control  of the  school                                                                    
debt.  She surmised  that there  was unissued  debt of  $271                                                                    
million   in   the   general   obligation   bonds   in   the                                                                    
affordability  analysis  from  January  2016.  Mr.  Mitchell                                                                    
replied in the affirmative.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon wondered  if there  was other  debt that                                                                    
was not on  the balance sheet, which would  impact the state                                                                    
credit  rating.  Mr. Mitchell  replied  that  a slide  would                                                                    
address that issue.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
9:19:48 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  highlighted slide  2, "State  Debt Obligations                                                                    
Outstanding."  The slide  showed the  state's payments  from                                                                    
GF. He noted that there were  two errors in the slide, which                                                                    
should  be zero:  Knik Arm  Crossing and  Pension Obligation                                                                    
Bonds. He continued to discuss the slide:                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     General Obligation*                                                                                                        
          Par Amount: $753,800,000                                                                                              
          Final Maturity: 2020 -2038                                                                                            
         Average Annual Debt Service: $60,000,000                                                                               
          Total Debt Service to Maturity: $800,000,000                                                                          
     Subject to Appropriation (COP/Lease Revenue)                                                                               
          Par Amount: $310,600,000                                                                                              
          Final Maturity: 2016 -2033                                                                                            
         Average Annual Debt Service: $25,000,000                                                                               
          Total Debt Service to Maturity: $410,000,000                                                                          
     Knik Arm Crossing (subject to appropriation)                                                                               
          Par Amount: $300,000,000                                                                                              
          Final Maturity: 2037 or 2038                                                                                          
          Average Annual Debt Service: EST. $25,000,000                                                                         
          Total Debt Service to Maturity: $500 million                                                                          
    Pension Obligation Bonds (subject to appropriation)                                                                         
          Par Amount: $5,000,000,000                                                                                            
     School Debt Reimbursement **                                                                                               
          Par Amount: $895,400,000                                                                                              
          Final Maturity: 2034                                                                                                  
         Average Annual Debt Service: $95,000,000                                                                               
          Total Debt Service to Maturity: $1,100,000,000                                                                        
     Other State Reimbursements (Capital Projects)                                                                              
          Par Amount: $35,800,000                                                                                               
          Final Maturity: 2031                                                                                                  
          Average Annual Debt Service: $4,500,000                                                                               
          Total Debt Service to Maturity: $50,600,000                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche queried the municipal share of the                                                                          
school debt reimbursement.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:22:57 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:23:30 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:23:38 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  shared that the  total outstanding  state debt                                                                    
was  $898 million.  The  community  share was  approximately                                                                    
$400 million.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche queried the  potential increased risk to                                                                    
the state with  the $400 million. Mr.  Mitchell replied that                                                                    
there had been a proration in  support of the program in the                                                                    
past. He furthered  that the program had  been modified over                                                                    
time.  He  stressed  that  the   communities  would  have  a                                                                    
difficult time funding.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche surmised  that the  state had  ultimate                                                                    
responsibility for  the school debt. Mr.  Mitchell responded                                                                    
that the  state had an  agreement to  fund a portion  of the                                                                    
debt service, so there was no additional commitment.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  noted that Anchorage carried  50 percent                                                                    
of the school  debt. She remarked that it  made a difference                                                                    
whether the  debt was carried  at a higher than  the current                                                                    
interest   rate.  She   noted  that,   under  the   previous                                                                    
administration, Anchorage  carried a higher  percentage debt                                                                    
load.  She  understood  that  Anchorage  was  encouraged  to                                                                    
refinance their debt,  so the state's debt  service would be                                                                    
lower. She  announced that Anchorage did  not refinance. She                                                                    
wondered whether the  administration would consider reducing                                                                    
the  payments  from  the  state.   She  queried  a  proposed                                                                    
statute, which would work in  the state's best interest. She                                                                    
understood  that there  was  a cost  to  the communities  to                                                                    
refinance debt.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly asked for a restatement.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  restated her question. She  compared the                                                                    
debt refinancing to refinancing a mortgage.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:30:53 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly wondered if the  loans could be refinanced at                                                                    
a lower rate  by the communities. Mr.  Mitchell replied that                                                                    
issuing bonds  required a  ten-year par  call. At  the tenth                                                                    
year,   refinancing   was   available.  He   stressed   that                                                                    
refinancing  was not  available before  than ten-year  mark,                                                                    
unless  there  was advanced  refunding  under  the tax  code                                                                    
during  the  life  of  the  bond  issue.  He  remarked  that                                                                    
advanced refunding  allowed for  the money to  be put  in an                                                                    
escrow  account  that  paid  the  interest  expense  on  the                                                                    
callable  bonds.  At  the  sixth   year,  the  bonds  become                                                                    
callable, so there was a defeasement.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
9:35:11 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop  noted  that   the  state  only  carried  70                                                                    
percent, and  the community percentage  never showed  on the                                                                    
state balance sheet. Mr. Mitchell agreed.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon looked  at the  asterisk on  the General                                                                    
Obligation portion  of the  slide. She  shared that  she had                                                                    
received an  email that stated  that the  administration was                                                                    
ready to  move forward  with issuing  debt of  $271 million.                                                                    
She   queried   the   number   of   consideration   by   the                                                                    
administration. Mr.  Mitchell replied  that the state  had a                                                                    
$155  million bond  anticipation note  that would  mature on                                                                    
March  18, 2016.  He explained  that the  administration was                                                                    
looking  to issue  a bond  of $151  million of  GO bonds  in                                                                    
early March to refinance the bond anticipation note.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon understood  that there  was a  cash call                                                                    
due. Mr. Mitchell agreed.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon did  not know the cash  call, but assumed                                                                    
it  was  for the  transportation  package.  She queried  the                                                                    
reasoning  for one-year  bonds, with  available assets.  Mr.                                                                    
Mitchell replied that the bond  were used, because they were                                                                    
authorized by  the legislature  and the  voters in  2012. He                                                                    
furthered  that bond  notes had  been issued  annually since                                                                    
2013.  He announced  that there  had not  been the  level of                                                                    
spending that was initially projected.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  wondered if there was  $151 million cash                                                                    
flow for  bonds. She shared  that some of the  bond packages                                                                    
only funded  design. She questioned the  utilization of debt                                                                    
for projects that may not come to fruition.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
9:40:24 AM                                                                                                                    
AT EASE                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:41:25 AM                                                                                                                    
RECONVENED                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:42:17 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly  offered a prayer  for a sick staffer  in the                                                                    
building.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell shared  that the $151 million  was to refinance                                                                    
the 2015  bond anticipation notes. The  project expenditures                                                                    
that had been made to  date were approximately $130 million.                                                                    
He stated  that the  forecast had historically  included DOT                                                                    
and DCCED,  which fully utilized the  $180 million generated                                                                    
by the prior sales in the  fiscal year. He remarked that the                                                                    
bond anticipation note program  there was no anticipation of                                                                    
issuing additional obligations, until  all the current funds                                                                    
were   expended.  The   accounting   system  was   currently                                                                    
inefficient,  so  the issuing  of  new  bonds would  require                                                                    
extra  work from  the administration.  There was  a hope  to                                                                    
minimize the  "footprint." He shared that,  historically the                                                                    
state had earned more from the  money held than were paid in                                                                    
interest expense;  because of the short  position. There was                                                                    
a net  interest cost  in the first  year of  approximately 9                                                                    
basis point;  second year  was almost  10 basis  points; and                                                                    
the  third  year was  15  basis  points. The  payments  were                                                                    
extraordinarily  low  rates,  which was  reinvested  in  the                                                                    
short-term pool  in the Treasury Division.  He stressed that                                                                    
issuing  $200  million of  long-dated  debt  would earn  the                                                                    
state 40 basis points, but  there would be negative carry on                                                                    
the construction  fund. He  stressed that  the money  in the                                                                    
bank should only be there out of necessity.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon felt  that the  rating agency  would see                                                                    
that this  was normal business  procedure, and no  new debt.                                                                    
Rather  the  debt was  reforming  in  a  way that  was  most                                                                    
efficient for the state. Mr. Mitchell agreed.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
9:45:52 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  looked at slide  3, "General  Obligation bonds                                                                    
Current Financings":                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Recent Activity:                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     To date, $182 million of the State's 2012 GO bond                                                                          
     authorization ($453.2 million) has been funded through                                                                     
     Bond Anticipation Notes (BANs) in 2013, 2014, and 2015                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
          Average interest rate on Bans has been just over                                                                      
          1/10 of a percent                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
          The State has amortized $19.3 million to date                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     2015 BAN repaid 2014 BAN with no new money                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
          Cash  flow  on  projects   has  been  slower  than                                                                    
          projected                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon noted  that any debt that  the state does                                                                    
not incur should  be considered a good thing.  She felt that                                                                    
the administration was using debt in a proper manner.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell discussed  slide  4,  "State Debt  Obligations                                                                    
Authorized But Unissued":                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     Known/anticipated Bond Issues                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
          March 2016 -Approximately  $150 million of general                                                                    
          obligation   bonds   to    refinance   2015   Bond                                                                    
          Anticipation Note                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
          Next  six  months  -Up to  $150  million  of  Bond                                                                    
          Anticipation Notes to  fund projects authorized by                                                                    
          the 2012 Transportation Act                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
          Next  six months  -Refinance  the  balance of  the                                                                    
          Matanuska    Susitna     Borough    Goose    Creek                                                                    
          Correctional  Facility  Lease  Revenue  Bonds  for                                                                    
          savings. The general fund pays  100 percent of the                                                                    
          debt service on these bonds.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:50:18 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  queried the  reasoning for 20  year mark                                                                    
for the  Knik Arm Crossing.   Mr. Mitchell replied  that the                                                                    
20 year mark was in the fiscal note.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  wondered  whether  the  bond  committee                                                                    
would  make that  determination. Mr.  Mitchell replied  that                                                                    
the State  Bond Committee would make  that determination. He                                                                    
furthered that the  legislature had the power  to change the                                                                    
law.                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  encouraged the  State Bond  Committee to                                                                    
consider the current situation and  issue the length of term                                                                    
of  the   debt  that   benefits  the   state  in   the  most                                                                    
advantageous way.                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell continued to discuss  slide 4. He remarked that                                                                    
there was an  authorization for up to $5  billion of pension                                                                    
obligation bonds. He remarked  that the administration chose                                                                    
to  ensure  that  the  legislature  agreed  that  it  was  a                                                                    
reasonable choice. He  remarked that a portion  of the bonds                                                                    
for Goose  Creek had been  refinanced in the  previous year.                                                                    
He stressed  that there  was no interest  in the  "belly" of                                                                    
the  curve,  so the  state  chose  to  do the  longer  dated                                                                    
maturities with  a sale of  8.5 percent, which  exceeded the                                                                    
targets  by two.  He  remarked  that the  state  may try  to                                                                    
refinance  a portion  of the  debt, with  the hope  that the                                                                    
borough would undertake a portion of that debt.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
9:54:14 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche  wondered  if   there  was  a  list  of                                                                    
outstanding debt that  may be different in  statute to bring                                                                    
down  the cost;  and addressed  unissued debt.  Mr. Mitchell                                                                    
replied  that the  state's debt  program  was efficient  and                                                                    
conservative.  He stressed  that,  per availability,  people                                                                    
were  efficient within  the programs.  He  noted that  there                                                                    
could  be an  adjustment  to the  school debt  reimbursement                                                                    
program, so the state did not  rely on sub entities to issue                                                                    
debt  in an  advantageous fashion.  Rather, the  state issue                                                                    
the debt  itself. He  noted that the  Knik Arm  Crossing was                                                                    
subject  to   appropriation,  subordinate  lien,   and  toll                                                                    
revenue structure. He  hoped to use toll revenue  to pay the                                                                    
bonds to the  extent that they were  sufficient. He stressed                                                                    
that  there would  be  an issue  in using  GO  bonds to  the                                                                    
state,  because  there  was federal  highway  money  in  the                                                                    
project  which  outlined  limitations  in how  to  use  toll                                                                    
revenues.  He  stated  that  the  structure  may  seem  less                                                                    
efficient that  the GO bonds,  the structure made  sense. He                                                                    
remarked that  there were some prisoners  outside the state,                                                                    
who wanted to  move back to Alaska. He stressed  that it was                                                                    
difficult to get voters to  approve a prison project, so the                                                                    
legislature  was  required  to  make the  decision  for  the                                                                    
discreet stand-alone project, Goose  Creek. He stressed that                                                                    
it  may  have  a  lesser  credit  quality,  but  made  sense                                                                    
overall.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:57:10 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell addressed  slide 5,  "Pension Obligation  Bond                                                                    
Strategy."  He  felt  that  there   are  different  ways  to                                                                    
consider pension  obligation bonds.  He stated  that pension                                                                    
obligation  bonds  were  beneficial  at  a  lower  interest,                                                                    
enhancing the  probability for success.  He shared  that the                                                                    
bonds  were  currently  at  5   percent  interest  rate.  He                                                                    
stressed that  the pre-funded  pension system,  which relied                                                                    
on  earnings,  informed  the  decision  to  drive  down  the                                                                    
interest rate.  He stressed that the  unfunded liability was                                                                    
at  an  actuarial  rate  at  8  percent.  He  stressed  that                                                                    
refinancing the  unfunded liability  may lower  the interest                                                                    
rate to 5 percent.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy wondered  if  Mr. Mitchell  would take  on                                                                    
similar financing  for his home.  Mr. Mitchell  replied that                                                                    
he  was  not  a  sophisticated  investor,  so  he  would  be                                                                    
reluctant to make that move individually.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy noted that there  had been some wildly "off                                                                    
the mark predictions and assessments made by experts."                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:02:05 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell continued to discuss slide 5:                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     Known/anticipated Bond Issues                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
          March 2016 -Approximately  $150 million of general                                                                    
          obligation   bonds   to    refinance   2015   Bond                                                                    
          Anticipation Note                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
          Next  six  months  -Up to  $150  million  of  Bond                                                                    
          Anticipation Notes to  fund projects authorized by                                                                    
          the 2012 Transportation Act                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
          Next  six months  -Refinance  the  balance of  the                                                                    
          Matanuska    Susitna     Borough    Goose    Creek                                                                    
          Correctional  Facility  Lease  Revenue  Bonds  for                                                                    
          savings. The general fund pays  100 percent of the                                                                    
          debt service on these bonds                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Mitchell highlighted  slide 6,  "State of  Alaska -Debt                                                                    
Capacity."  The  slide  showed   the  metrics  of  the  debt                                                                    
capacity.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  wondered whether the analysis  was based                                                                    
on FY  15 actuals, FY  16 new revenue dollars,  or projected                                                                    
revenues for FY 17. Mr.  Mitchell replied that the slide was                                                                    
based  on  the Fall  Revenue  Sources  book  for FY  16  and                                                                    
throughout.  He  shared  that  the  book  included  a  table                                                                    
titled,  "State Appropriatable  Revenue."  He remarked  that                                                                    
there were categories of money  in the state which was known                                                                    
as  "restricted."  He  remarked   that  the  money  was  not                                                                    
"restricted."  The legislature  could spend  the money,  but                                                                    
chose to put it into  savings, because that was the historic                                                                    
action of the legislature.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly handed the gavel to Co-Chair MacKinnon.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell looked at slide  7, "Rating Agency Views -State                                                                    
of Alaska":                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Moody: Aaa (Negative)                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
          Rapid   reserve    depletion   and    absence   of                                                                    
          diversifying tax revenues  or imposing significant                                                                    
          expenditure reductions would  be consistent with a                                                                    
          lower rating                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Standard and Poor's: AA+ (Negative)                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
          Alaska  has  sufficient   financial  resources  to                                                                    
          stabilize  general   fund  operations/  uncommonly                                                                    
          large   reserves  cannot   overcome  the   current                                                                    
          trajectory  of   fiscal  condition/   modest  debt                                                                    
          burden, untapped potential sources of tax revenue                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Fitch Ratings: AAA (Stable)                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
          Very   large  reserves   providing  multiple-times                                                                    
          coverage   of   debt  obligation;   downgrade   if                                                                    
          sustained revenue decline is not addressed                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:07:15 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon wondered if  other rating agencies looked                                                                    
at  the closed  pension plan  as  a positive  rating to  the                                                                    
state. Mr. Mitchell replied in the affirmative.                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  stressed  that the  positive  financial                                                                    
perspective was  due to the  understanding of  the liability                                                                    
and  hoping  to  eliminate   that  liability.  Mr.  Mitchell                                                                    
agreed.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell  discussed slide 8, "State  of Alaska -Historic                                                                    
Ratings and Issue Timeline; ANS West Coast Spot Price":                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     February 11, 2014: Rating Agency Update                                                                                    
     December 16, 2014: Moody's revises Alaska outlook to                                                                       
     negative after oil price plunge, affirms Aaa GO Rating                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     December  18,  2014: S  and  P  no action,  warns  that                                                                    
     Alaska must reduce deficit to keep AAA rating                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     February 3, 2015: Rating Agency Update                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     March 10, 2015: Sold  Series 2015A GO Bond anticipation                                                                    
     Notes, $155.2 mm                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     March 24, 2015: Refinanced $100.6  mm of 2009A GO Bonds                                                                    
     for 7.5 percent in PV savings                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     April  2,  2015: Refinanced  $101.9  mm  of 2008  Goose                                                                    
     Creek Bonds for 8.56 percent in PV savings                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     April  13  2015:  Teleconferenced  to  update  Moody's,                                                                    
     Fitch, and S and P on Legislative Session                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
     June 26, 2015: Update Call with Fitch                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     July 9, 2015: Update Call with Moody's                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     August 7, 2015: Meeting with S and P                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
     August  18,  2015:  S  and P  revised  the  outlook  to                                                                    
     negative from stable affirmed AAA GO Bond Rating                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
     October 21,  2015: Fall 2015  Fiscal and  Credit Update                                                                    
     to Rating Agencies                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     January  6, 2016:  S and  P lowered  its rating  to AA+                                                                    
     from AAA on GO Bond Ratings (outlook negative)                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell highlighted slide  10, "Alaska's Current Budget                                                                    
Challenges   are  Unprecedented,   But  the   State's  Large                                                                    
Reserves  Provide  Time   for  Developing  and  Implementing                                                                    
Sound, Structural Budget Reforms":                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     Budget  realities  have   appropriately  prompted  wide                                                                    
     reaching  discussions on  spending priorities,  tax and                                                                    
     revenue policies,  use of reserves and  distribution of                                                                    
     Permanent Fund dividends                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
     Abundant  reserve levels  provide  the opportunity  for                                                                    
     Alaskans  to   take  a  deliberate   and  comprehensive                                                                    
     approach to restructuring the State's public finances                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
     There   have   been   NO  suggestions   that   existing                                                                    
     obligations  should  in  any way  be  compromised.  The                                                                    
     state has  always acted in  ways that  provide positive                                                                    
     assurances to bondholders.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell addressed slide 11,  "Overview of Moody's State                                                                    
GO Rating Methodology and Criteria":                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Moody's outlines four broad rating  factors and 10 sub-                                                                    
     factors  in its  fundamental  analytical framework  for                                                                    
    rating U.S. States, each with an assigned weighting                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
          Economy, 20 percent weight                                                                                            
          Governance, 30 percent weight                                                                                         
          Finances, 30 percent weight                                                                                           
          Debt, 20 percent weight                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
     Each of  these factors is evaluated  using various sub-                                                                    
     factors scored  on a  scale from 1  (Aaa) to  9(Baa and                                                                    
     Below)                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     Each sub-factor's  value is multiplied by  its assigned                                                                    
     weight and  then summed to  produce a  weighted average                                                                    
     score,  which  is   translated  to  the  grid-indicated                                                                    
     rating                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
     The grid-indicated  rating is then adjusted  up or down                                                                    
     for applied notching considerations                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell highlighted slide 12,  "State of Alaska Moody's                                                                    
GO  Scorecard." He  remarked that  Moody  attempted to  "fit                                                                    
everyone in the same box",  which was difficult with Alaska,                                                                    
because the state was unusual.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell explained  that the scores were based  on a set                                                                    
of  criteria that  may  not relate  directly  to Alaska.  He                                                                    
remarked that  economy, governance,  finance, and  debt were                                                                    
the weighted categories.                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:11:02 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell looked at slide 13,  "Overview of S and P State                                                                    
GO Rating Methodology and Criteria":                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     S  and  P  outlines  five key  rating  factors  in  its                                                                    
     analytical framework for rating U.S. States                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
          Government framework                                                                                                  
          Financial management                                                                                                  
          Economy                                                                                                               
          Budgetary performance                                                                                                 
          Debt and liability profile                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Each  of  these  factors  is  evaluated  using  various                                                                    
     metrics  scored on  a  scale from  1  (strongest) to  4                                                                    
     (weakest)                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
          Each metric may have several indicators that are                                                                      
          scored on the same scale and averaged                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
     Ultimately,  the  scores  for   the  five  factors  are                                                                    
     averaged  with equal  weight to  arrive  at an  overall                                                                    
     score  which  is  translated to  an  indicative  credit                                                                    
     level                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell addressed slide 14, "State of Alaska S and P                                                                       
GO Scorecard."                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Mitchell looked at slide 15, "Overview of Fitch State                                                                       
GO Rating Methodology and Criteria":                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
     Fitch  outlines four  key rating  factors  in its  U.S.                                                                    
     State Government Tax-Supported Rating Criteria                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
          Debt and Other Long-term Liabilities                                                                                  
          Economy                                                                                                               
          Finances                                                                                                              
          Management and Administration                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
     Fitch  does   not  use  a  numerical   scoring  system;                                                                    
     instead,  for  each  rating factor  an  entity  may  be                                                                    
     classified  as "Above  Average,"  "Average," or  "Below                                                                    
    Average" based on a number of different attributes                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
     Fitch does  not detail  how a  final rating  is derived                                                                    
     based on how an entity rates in each category                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
     Overall,  Fitch's ratings  for  states'  GO debt  falls                                                                    
     within the two highest rating  categories of AAA or AA,                                                                    
     with a few outliers                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
     Fitch's  methodology is  more of  a traditional  rating                                                                    
     approach  and   allows  the  rating   analysts  greater                                                                    
     discretion in assigning relative weights to each                                                                           
     factor depending on issuer specifics                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon shared  that S  and P  had a  concept of                                                                    
economy,  governance,  finance,  and  debt.  She  encouraged                                                                    
state to develop a state  scorecard, based on combination of                                                                    
the three rating  agencies. She wanted to  show Alaskans why                                                                    
the criteria would  be important for the  senate to examine.                                                                    
She  stressed that  the rating  agencies were  examining the                                                                    
unemployment  rate; standard  income; and  other factors  in                                                                    
their rating outcome.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche looked  at slide 12, and  asked for more                                                                    
information  about  why the  state  did  not use  a  binding                                                                    
consensus   revenue   estimating   process.   Mr.   Mitchell                                                                    
responded  that Alaska  did not  always fit  into the  exact                                                                    
requirements  accurately.  He   stressed  that  revenue  was                                                                    
classified  in a  different  way in  Alaska  and outside  of                                                                    
volatility. He  stated that UGF may  be considered volatile,                                                                    
but was  backfilled with  CBR and  other reserves.  He noted                                                                    
that there was  more money deposited into the  CBT than what                                                                    
was withdrawn.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche  noted   that  revenue  forecasts  were                                                                    
issued  twice  a year.  He  felt  that  there was  a  common                                                                    
practice of overestimating the price  of oil. He wondered if                                                                    
the pool was too small  in the evaluations of probable price                                                                    
atmosphere. Mr. Mitchell  replied that it was  not a binding                                                                    
forecast. He  felt that  the legislature's  involvement with                                                                    
the  drafting  of  the  revenue forecast  book  could  be  a                                                                    
positive step.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon handed the gavel to Co-Chair Kelly.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
10:17:33 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy  surmised that the rating  agencies did not                                                                    
set the rates. Mr. Mitchell replied in the affirmative.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy wondered if the  rates were negotiable. Mr.                                                                    
Mitchell misunderstood  the question.  He stressed  that the                                                                    
rating agencies set the credit rating.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Senator Dunleavy wondered if the  interest on the final debt                                                                    
would be negotiable  between the state and  the debt issuing                                                                    
institution. Mr. Mitchell replied  that the state sold debt,                                                                    
and was  given a credit rating  on the debt. The  rating was                                                                    
incorporated  into  a document,  and  the  investors made  a                                                                    
decision  on credit  quality. He  stressed  that there  were                                                                    
various other variables, like the lack of income tax.                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  queried the  current debt  capacity. Mr.                                                                    
Mitchell   replied  that   the   established  metrics   were                                                                    
considered "best practices." He  shared that Puerto Rico had                                                                    
an  extreme debt.  He furthered  that one  must analyze  the                                                                    
issue  of  taking  on  more  debt that  would  result  in  a                                                                    
negative credit rating.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
10:22:01 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Kelly  queried  the bond  capacity.  Mr.  Mitchell                                                                    
responded that,  for purposes of  the fall forecast  and the                                                                    
debt  affordability analysis,  the  bond  capacity would  be                                                                    
approximately $175 million to $225 million.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair MacKinnon  looked at page  3 of the  "Alaska Public                                                                    
Debt" (copy  on file). She  noted that the  potential impact                                                                    
of  the  Knik Arm  Crossing  bonds  resulted in  the  "state                                                                    
exceeding  the  target  debt  limit   for  the  category  of                                                                    
borrowing for  the next  ten years."  She stressed  that the                                                                    
committee  had zero  bond debt  capacity based  on what  was                                                                    
already authorized.  Mr. Mitchell agreed. He  furthered that                                                                    
he  had handicapped  the Knik  Arm Crossing,  but felt  that                                                                    
there would be more information soon about that project.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche  wondered why  the committee  would care                                                                    
about  the credit  rating. Mr.  Mitchell responded  that the                                                                    
state  sold some  bonds through  the  Alaska Municipal  Bond                                                                    
Bank. He  stated that  a lower rating  would result  in more                                                                    
expensive bonds.  He stressed the importance  of keeping the                                                                    
costs low to ensure a higher credit score.                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche queried  the most  important components                                                                    
of  the  fiscal  gap  that required  progress  in  order  to                                                                    
enhance the rating. Mr. Mitchell  replied that there must be                                                                    
an understanding of the true credit rating in the state.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair Micciche  wondered if a negative  rating would be                                                                    
used as a tool to  control increasing debt. Mr. Mitchell did                                                                    
not understand the question.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:28:30 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Vice-Chair  Micciche remarked  that  a  positive rating  may                                                                    
make  debt  look attractive.  He  wondered  if the  negative                                                                    
rating may  force responsible management without  the use of                                                                    
debt. Mr. Mitchell replied that he would focus on debt.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop  wondered  how  the  state  used  the  Grant                                                                    
Anticipation Revenue  Vehicles (GARVEE) Bonds, and  how they                                                                    
were  paid. Mr.  Mitchell responded  that GARVEE  bonds were                                                                    
issued in 2003. He explained  that, in some states, a GARVEE                                                                    
bond could be  a revenue pledge with a motor  fuel tax back,                                                                    
which anticipated using federal  highway funds in the future                                                                    
to   pay  for   the   obligations  with   the  state   match                                                                    
requirement.  He shared  that  Alaska could  not pledge  any                                                                    
revenue, so  the state used  a general obligation  bond. The                                                                    
general  obligation  bond  was  repaid  in  the  Accelerated                                                                    
Transportation Act.  He stated that the  investment earnings                                                                    
on the proceeds  were used as the state's match,  so the UGH                                                                    
outlay was ultimately  zero. The federal funds  were used to                                                                    
pay all of the debt service on those obligations.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Bishop noted  that there  was a  difference between                                                                    
spending  for  services  and spending  for  investments.  He                                                                    
stressed  that the  state should  have a  strong economy  in                                                                    
order to  preserve the workforce.  He shared that  the AKLNG                                                                    
project  required the  most skilled  workers. He  encouraged                                                                    
the committee to continue to fund construction projects.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:32:46 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy wondered  if the  current rating  agencies                                                                    
were  rating  bonds in  the  2007  and 2008  recession.  Mr.                                                                    
Mitchell replied in the affirmative.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Dunleavy commented  the  country  had exceeded  $18                                                                    
trillion  debt. He  shared that  the United  States citizens                                                                    
paid  nearly  $3  trillion  in  taxes  to  "bail  out  those                                                                    
outfits."  He suggested  that people  research Puerto  Rico,                                                                    
because  some were  fleeing Puerto  Rico en  masse. He  felt                                                                    
that optimism was a positive  thing, but should not override                                                                    
historic realities. He felt that  the country had not worked                                                                    
out the  toxic debt.  He stressed  that someone  always paid                                                                    
for the decisions.                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Kelly discussed the following week's schedule.                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  MacKinnon  stated  that the  Medicaid  bills  were                                                                    
still in subcommittee.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
10:36:41 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 10:36 a.m.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
Presentation: 020416 FY2017 Debt Summary DOR.pdf SFIN 2/4/2016 9:00:00 AM
Debt book 2015-2016 FINAL 1 25 16.pdf SFIN 2/4/2016 9:00:00 AM
SB 139
State Debt Numbers and Ratios - DOR 1.21.16.pdf SFIN 2/4/2016 9:00:00 AM
SB 139